Subscription Deep Dive

Prepared for

Brown Butter Cookie Company

Subscription deep dive, August 19, 2026

A close read of the Cookie Club, the store's subscription program on Recharge. It is a real recurring $40,000 a year, but two of every three subscriptions ever created have already ended, and 1,265 proven repeat buyers have never joined. The opportunity is retention and conversion, not new demand.

Recharge reports $3,355 in gross subscription revenue over the last 30 days. Recharge, Home
01

Overview

362

active subscriptions

199 subscribers, 2% of customers

Recharge merchant admin, subscription status counts

$3,355

gross recurring revenue, per month

about $40,000 a year, 9% of revenue

Recharge, Home

65%

of subscriptions ever created have ended

662 of 1,024 lifetime

Recharge merchant admin, subscription status counts

1,265

proven repeat buyers not subscribed

6x the current subscriber base

BigCommerce customer records: customers with 3+ orders and no active subscription
02

Revenue

Finding 01

A real recurring floor, and a modest one

Recharge bills roughly $3,355 a month, a run rate near $40,000 a year and about 9% of store revenue. Spread across 199 subscribers, that is close to $17 each a month, and the average Cookie Club order runs about $30.

This is genuine recurring revenue, and it bills in the quiet months when the rest of the store is slow. The question is not whether it exists. It is whether it grows or keeps leaking, which the next two sections take in turn.

9%
of store revenue is recurring today

$17

average recurring revenue per subscriber, per month

03

Retention

Finding 02

Two of every three subscriptions have ended

The Cookie Club has created 1,024 subscriptions over its life. 362 are still billing (35%); the other 662 have ended, 580 cancelled and 82 expired. A 65% lifetime churn is the single biggest fact about this program, and it is where the money is.

Among the cancellations, the reasons cluster:

  • Too expensive
  • Already have more than I need
  • A failed payment (card declined or expired)

The recoverable part: about 10% of cancellations are failed payments, not a decision to leave. Card-retry logic and pre-dunning emails recover most of those with no offer or discount. It is the cheapest revenue in the program.

Every subscription ever created, by status

Still active
36235%
Cancelled
58057%
Expired
828%
For every three subscriptions the Club has created, two have already ended.
Recharge merchant admin, subscription status counts
04

Plans and cadence

Finding 03

Mostly quarterly, and priced by size

The active book is 74% quarterly and 26% monthly, across three plans: a monthly one-dozen and half-dozen, and a quarterly two-dozen. The quarterly two-dozen box carries the most revenue of the three.

The quarterly tilt means most revenue arrives in larger, less frequent charges. That raises the stakes on every renewal and feeds the too expensive and more than I need reasons above. A smaller or more frequent option, offered at the moment someone tries to cancel, keeps people who would otherwise leave.

74%
of active subscriptions bill quarterly

Cookie Club revenue by plan, last 12 months

One Dozen, Monthly
$11,045451 orders
Half Dozen, Monthly
$10,949439 orders
Two Dozen, Quarterly
$13,141281 orders
The quarterly two-dozen box leads on revenue despite the fewest orders. Bigger boxes, billed less often.
Recharge plan mix; Cookie Club product revenue from BigCommerce order data, last 12 months
05

Growth

Finding 04

The next 1,265 subscribers already shop here

1,265 customers have ordered three or more times and never subscribed, 6x the 199 current subscribers. Between them they have placed 6,968 orders by hand. They are not a cold audience; they are resubscribing manually every time they run out.

Meanwhile the program adds only about 13 subscriptions a month, and Recharge rates the setup 18 out of 100, which means most of its built-in retention and upsell tools are switched off. Growth here is conversion and configuration, not new traffic.

Current subscribers vs proven repeat buyers

In the Cookie Club today
199
Proven repeat buyers, not subscribed
1,2656x larger
The conversion target is six times the size of the program it would feed.
BigCommerce customer records: customers with 3+ orders and no active subscription
06

Plan

Five moves, retention first because a leaking program cannot be grown. The first two are near-term; the rest build the base back up.

  1. 01

    Stop the involuntary churn first

    Retention 30 days

    About 1 in 10 cancellations is a failed payment, not a decision to leave. Turn on card-retry logic and pre-dunning emails (card expiring, payment failed) in Recharge. This is the cheapest revenue in the program: the customer already wants the box.

  2. 02

    Offer a smaller box before they cancel

    Retention 30 days

    The top voluntary reasons are "too expensive" and "more than I need." Add a cancel-flow that offers a skip, a longer interval, or a smaller size instead of a full stop. On a book that is 74% quarterly, letting people slow down keeps more of them than losing them outright.

  3. 03

    Convert the 1,265 proven repeat buyers

    Growth 90 days

    The store has 1,265 customers who have ordered three or more times and never subscribed, six times the current subscriber base. They already reorder by hand. A one-step offer to put the box they keep buying on a subscription is the fastest path to growth.

  4. 04

    Raise the Recharge optimization score

    Growth 90 days

    Recharge rates the program 18 out of 100, which means most of its built-in retention tools are switched off: customer portal upsells, post-purchase subscribe offers, loyalty perks, and win-back flows. Working through that checklist is a structured list of quick wins.

  5. 05

    Win back the lapsed subscribers

    Retention 90 days

    662 subscriptions have ended over the program's life. Many were happy once and left over price, cadence, or a failed card. A targeted win-back offer to former subscribers is warmer than any cold acquisition and rebuilds the base from people who already tried it.